At a time when avian flu and foot-and-mouth disease have been in the headlines, it is reasonable for people to closely watch consumer food price inflation to gauge the effect of these issues. <\/p>\n
On 18 June, we got the inflation data for May 2025<\/a>. South Africa’s consumer food price inflation has continued to accelerate but this should not be a concern because the recent upticks are in line with expectations and could be short-lived. <\/p>\n The data released on Monday by Statistics South Africa shows that consumer food price inflation accelerated to 4.4%<\/a> in May from 3.3% in April 2025<\/a>. <\/p>\n The acceleration in price inflation of meat; fish and other seafood; oils and fats; fruit and nuts and vegetables mainly underpinned the uptick. <\/p>\n Meanwhile, other products remained roughly unchanged, while some experienced slowing price inflation. <\/p>\n Regarding meat, the key issues that have dominated the headlines are the outbreak of avian flu in Brazil and its potential effect on domestic poultry supplies and prices. The second concern relates to beef supplies after the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. <\/p>\n Still, we believe the effects of these two events have not yet been fully factored into the current price trends. The price increases we observe are essentially a continuation of the past few months, mainly because of base effects, the rising domestic demand and the suppliers’ window to pass on some costs they have experienced stemming from higher feed prices over the past couple of months before the recent cooling of maize and soybean prices. <\/p>\n In the case of beef, it is essential to note that, unlike what is generally stated in the commentary, when an outbreak occurs, red meat exports are temporarily banned, which increases local supplies. <\/p>\n In the past, such led to a mild decline in red meat prices. This is why we have doubts about the talk of potential sharp increases in the coming months due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. <\/p>\n Regarding poultry, South Africa has temporarily restricted imports from Brazil, one of its largest suppliers of poultry products, due to the disease outbreak. <\/p>\n But this ban is for the short term, and the authorities have indicated that South Africa will restrict imports only from the affected areas, not the entire country of Brazil. This means any poultry supply issue, if it arises, will be temporary.<\/p>\n Based on these two factors, we are inclined to believe that the recent uptick in meat inflation could prove to be short-lived.<\/p>\n Regarding fruit and vegetables, we observe a recovery in the supply of various products in the fresh produce markets and suspect that prices could moderate in the coming months. The recent increases reflect the disruptions in supplies that have occurred in recent months, some of which are related to weather. <\/p>\n